FIRING LINE: What the latest poll tells Senators

FIRING LINE: What the latest poll tells Senators

By Robert B. Roque Jr. | May 7, 2026

Don’t look now, but if you’re rooting for Sara Duterte to win in 2028, the numbers are starting to tell a less comfortable story. Take the latest Pulse Asia survey, for example: the Vice President is still ahead, but no longer a force you would instantly call a runaway winner.

The poll, conducted Feb. 27 to March 2, shows that in a straight VP Duterte-Mayor Leni Robredo matchup, respondents are at 51% to 43%. That’s an eight-point gap that looks sturdy until you remember where this race once stood. Earlier multi-candidate soundings had Leni Robredo languishing in single digits. Now, in a forced choice, she’s within striking distance.

Also, take note that this voter sampling was taken before the impeachment process against the VP came rolling full-steam ahead. Personally, I expect significant changes if the polling were done today. Or maybe not.

Analysts point out that the regional and class breakdowns remain a defining factor for these results. Duterte dominates Mindanao (93%) and the Visayas (67%), while Robredo commands Balance Luzon (67%) and edges the National Capital Region, 42% to 41%. More telling: Robredo leads decisively among Class ABC voters (63%), while Duterte’s strength is anchored in Classes D (53%) and E (74%). That’s not just a demographic split — it’s a map of where persuasion, resources, and narrative-setting power tend to flow.

Then comes the Raffy Tulfo variable — one that my good friend in the Senate does not seriously pay attention to. Although I think, even just to amuse him and his friends, he should. And here’s why.

Against Duterte, Tulfo forces a statistical deadlock at 46% apiece. And crucially, his strength in Balance Luzon (72% to Duterte’s 19%) and competitiveness in Class D suggest he siphons from Duterte’s coalition more than Robredo’s. In a three-way race, Duterte still leads at 43%, but Robredo (27%) and Tulfo (19%) compress the field enough to erase any illusion of inevitability.

Two years is an eternity in Philippine politics. But one thing this survey clearly magnifies in my mind is that invincibility does not belong to Sara Duterte when we talk about 2028. Perhaps that should simmer and settle more in the minds of senators who would be in a unique position to sit in judgment should the articles of impeachment reach their chamber.

Because if this data tells us anything, it is that the presidency is far from a sealed deal. And if it is not a sealed deal, then there is no rational basis — none at all — for fear to creep into an institution that is constitutionally bound to act with independence.

The Senate, when convened as an impeachment court, is not a political extension of whoever might win next. It is a constitutional body tasked to weigh evidence, test accountability, and render judgment without favor or fear. That duty does not bend to survey numbers. It certainly should not cower before them.

To hesitate, to hedge, or worse, to preemptively shield a sitting Vice President on the assumption that she is the “next president anyway” is not prudence — it is abdication.

If the articles arrive, the Senate must do its job. Fully. Fairly. Fearlessly.

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