Shipping Traffic Plummets in Strait of Hormuz After Iran’s Closure

Shipping Traffic Plummets in Strait of Hormuz After Iran’s Closure

By Paul V. Young – TheNATIONWEEK.com | June 22, 2026

BRISBANE, Australia – The critical Strait of Hormuz, a choke point for global energy supplies, has seen a dramatic decline in shipping traffic following a declaration from Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) that it has closed the strategic waterway again. This move, citing Israeli actions in Lebanon and perceived failures by the United States to uphold a ceasefire, occurs amidst delicate negotiations between the US and Iran aimed at solidifying a fragile peace framework.

Maritime intelligence company Windward reported a stark reduction in transits on Sunday, with only 12 vessels navigating the strait, a precipitous drop from 35 the previous day. Further raising concerns, five of the eight vessels entering the strait had their Automatic Identification Systems (AIS) deactivated, a practice often employed to avoid detection. Windward characterized the current traffic profile as “dark, sanctioned, Iranian-linked, resembling the late-blockade baseline more than a functioning open strait.”

This sharp decline follows a brief period of recovery in maritime activity. Data from Kpler, another intelligence provider, showed 25 vessels transiting the strait on Thursday, the highest figure since mid-April. This uptick coincided with the signing of a memorandum of understanding between US President Donald Trump and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian on Wednesday, a pact designed to end the US-Israel conflict with Iran.

However, the IRGC’s declaration on Saturday, blaming Israeli “crimes” in Lebanon and a perceived US failure to maintain a ceasefire, quickly reversed this positive trend.

Conflicting Accounts and Geopolitical Tensions

US Central Command (CENTCOM) contradicted Iran’s closure claim on Saturday, asserting that safe passage through the waterway remained “intact,” with 55 merchant ships transiting that day. The disparity between CENTCOM’s figures and those from commercial tracking providers remains unexplained.

Behrouz Bakhtiari, a supply chain management expert at McMaster University, suggested that CENTCOM’s higher figures might include “visible plus invisible passages.” He explained that many vessels, to avoid Iranian military detection, disable their AIS transponders and utilize a lane hugging the Omani shoreline. “While Iran is incentivized to claim that the traffic has thinned – and it has – CENTCOM is incentivized to claim that the impact of Iran’s re-closure has not been significant, hence the higher number,” Bakhtiari stated. “It is important to note that CENTCOM’s number cannot be verified, but that does not necessarily make it incorrect.”

High-Stakes Negotiations Amid Renewed Conflict

The renewed tensions unfolded as US and Iranian negotiators engaged in critical talks in Switzerland on Sunday. These “make-or-break” discussions aimed to transition a 60-day ceasefire extension into a permanent peace agreement, a goal now threatened by the escalating conflict in Lebanon.

Following the talks, Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei informed Iranian media that the safe passage of ships through the strait was a key discussion point, and “a mechanism was set up, which is important.”

Despite the heightened geopolitical friction and signs of reduced traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, global oil prices saw a slight dip on Monday morning in Asia. Brent crude, the international benchmark, was down approximately 0.9 percent at just under $80 a barrel. Asia’s major stock markets, however, opened higher, with key indices in Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan registering substantial gains, though Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index bucked the trend with a 0.7 percent dip.

This latest development underscores the volatile nature of the region and the profound impact geopolitical events can have on global energy markets and international shipping. The Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas passes, remains a critical flashpoint demanding sustained international attention.

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