FIRING LINE: The hot topic is so dry

FIRING LINE: The hot topic is so dry

By Robert B. Roque Jr. l October 1, 2026

And now we’ve reached October… and what do we have? The start of what scientists call the “strong El Niño.” It begins today and ends sometime in early 2027, if forecasts hold.

We’ve long been warned. The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) says the current strong El Niño may become “very strong” by the last quarter of 2026 and persist into early 2027. Administrator Nathaniel Servando urged the public, local governments, and key sectors to take the warnings seriously.

But first, let’s not confuse weather with climate. Weather is what is happening outside right now, over minutes, hours, or days. Climate is the long-term pattern of a region, seen across years and decades.

Now, what’s coming. Starting in October, about 45 provinces may see dry conditions, and eight may face drought. PAGASA defines drought as three straight months of way-below-normal rainfall, or five months of below-normal rainfall. The worst stretch is January to March 2027. 

The Climate Change Commission (CCC) warns that heat could kill up to 6,000 among the vulnerable. Its advice: shift school hours to 6:00–9:30 a.m., keep everyone, especially seniors with respiratory illness, indoors from 10 a.m. to 3 p.m., reschedule outdoor work, set up misting and cooling stations, and keep the moss and grass on pavements to cool pathways. Water is already in crisis, the CCC says, and localized water management is a must.

This is not just our problem. Berkeley Earth’s Zeke Hausfather told AFP this week that the tropical Pacific’s sea surface temperature anomaly has hit 3.07°C, tying the 2015–2016 record. September will likely set a monthly record. Central America is already suffering, with crops and animals dying, and the Panama Canal, which carries five percent of global trade, has had to slash traffic due to a lack of water. Scientists disagree on whether climate change intensifies El Niño itself, but it clearly worsens droughts and extreme rains.

What does our government promise amid this threat? For rice and grains, the Department of Agriculture (DA) has shifted planting to October–November, is distributing drought-resistant seed, teaching Alternate Wetting and Drying, and keeping rice imports as a buffer.

The Department of Budget and Management (DBM) released ₱6.2 billion for fertilizer and fuel subsidies, with ₱10 billion more sought. For livestock and vegetables, Agriculture Secretary Francisco Tiu Laurel Jr. would shift production to less affected regions.

For fisheries, fuel subsidies keep fisherfolk at sea. For water and power, ₱3.5 billion is earmarked for solar irrigation, while the Office of Civil Defense (OCD) and the DA prioritize water impounding and cloud seeding, with solar alternatives to offset hydropower losses. 

Senator Francis Pangilinan proposes a public El Niño dashboard, and crop insurance is meant to shield farmers from ruin. But the problem with the BBM administration, though, is that it has promised so many things and delivered so little. Its accomplishments are way off the mark next to the booboos and failures to nip corruption, which runs into the hundreds of billions in flood mitigation infrastructure projects alone.

So back to essentials: food security, irrigation for our farms, medical care, fuel, energy and electricity, and water supply. Local government units must follow their adaptation plans, and every household must do its part: tighten belts, save and recycle water, and resist panic buying, which only drives prices up for everyone.

Once again the nation will have to depend on itself: the working man, and the private sector that grows our food and competes to keep it affordable.

With all this in view, perhaps deliverance is all we’d have to wish for this Christmas!

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