FIRING LINE: Joel, hear the warning shot

FIRING LINE: Joel, hear the warning shot

By Robert B. Roque Jr. | June 11, 2026

First, let us establish that the photograph circulating on social media First, let us establish that the photograph circulating on social media showing Sen. Joel Villanueva cozying up with Senators Win Gatchalian and Migz Zubiri is an old one. Having said that, as a matter of journalistic responsibility, let me offer an opinion: the scene captured in that June 2018 photograph pretty much reflects the tenor of relationships today.

And that is what continues to buoy speculation that Villanueva may eventually hand the Gatchalian bloc the 13th vote it needs to dispel lingering doubts about its command of the Senate.

Frankly, I do not understand what more needs to be settled.

The House and Malacañang recognize whatever you want to call Gatchalian’s de facto leadership. The operating Senate staff, its security, and its website honor it. Constitutional luminaries such as former Senate President Franklin Drilon and framer Adolfo Azcuna speak of the legal presumption of regularity that the reconstituted chamber enjoys.

And if Sen. Alan Peter Cayetano truly believes he still possesses the 13 votes to remain Senate President, there is always the Supreme Court. We already know he can’t have a repeat with Senators Jinggoy Estrada and Ronald “Bato” dela Rosa out of the scene and Sen. Chiz Escudero defecting.

If Cayetano truly believed his 13 votes still hold, then why hasn’t he taken that route to the SC yet? Which brings me back to Joel Villanueva.

Last week, in this space, I wrote about Jinggoy Estrada and how, according to Senate insiders, negotiators had given him the opportunity to cross over to the then-emerging majority. They allegedly accompanied their persuasion with what later appeared to be a warning shot — the filing of a bailable graft charge. Jinggoy heard the shot, shrugged, posted bail, and, according to sources, chose to stake his fate and political future on the belief that Sara Duterte would eventually ascend to Malacañang in 2028.

Whether that gamble proves wise or fatal remains to be seen.

This week, DPWH Secretary Vince Dizon announced that a “big fish” would soon be charged in connection with the Bulacan flood-control scandal. Anyone with a nose for the news instinctively thought of Joel Villanueva. As it turned out, the dragnet fell on Curlee Discaya instead.

But surely, the sound of that warning shot must have run down Villanueva’s spine.

And perhaps he ought to listen.

There is no shame in crossing over after Chiz Escudero quietly did so. In fact, there is honor in helping restore order to an institution that has suffered enough embarrassment.

Because what hangs in the balance now is bigger than Win or Alan.

Recent reports citing concerns from Senate veterans Tito Sotto and Ping Lacson about frustrations brewing within elements of the armed services should alarm everyone. Confusion, paralysis, and competing claims to authority are luxuries that institutions cannot afford. A Senate with a clear majority, a solid quorum, and leadership whose legitimacy is unquestioned both politically and constitutionally is the best antidote against uncertainty — and against those who may be tempted to exploit it.

Which is why Villanueva’s choice carries more weight than perhaps even he realizes.

So if I was mistaken at the outset in assuming that he is indeed at a crossroads in his political life, then allow me to gently prod him there. Choose, Sen. Joel.

Sometimes history does not remember the man who switched sides. It remembers the man who saved the institution. This time, probably, from an ugly military intervention.

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